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Geopolitical Events
Ripple Effects: How the 2024 U.S. Election Results Could Reshape American and Australia’s Financial Markets
Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election has already stirred financial markets, with various sectors and asset classes responding to anticipated policy shifts based on campaign promises. Whilst such promises often go unfulfilled, markets are beginning to price in these potential changes until clarity on policy directions e...
November 8, 2024
Read More > US Election live event: The market reacts
Join us for a special Inner Circle event as we examine the real-time market responses to the 2024 US Presidential Election results. We will explore market volatility and opportunities as reactions unfold across various asset classes. We will be hosting four live sessions throughout the day, led by our Head of Client Education and Senior Analyst,...
November 4, 2024
Read More > Early Voting Kicks Off, as a Trump Presidency comes into view
Early voting has officially begun in several critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina signalling the start of an intense final stretch in the race for the presidency. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have also now entered the early voting period and what is interesting in 2024 over 2020 is that Trump has backed...
October 23, 2024
Read More > The US Presidential Election 2024 – Handbook
The basics: We are in the final weeks of the 2024 US presidential election. But what exactly are US citizens voting for and when will it actually take place? A US election always takes place on the first Tuesday of November – that means that for this year Tuesday, 5 November 2024, is when the election will be held, with the swearing of...
October 11, 2024
Read More > Beware the Geopolitical trade: An evergreen trade risk to be remembered
The horrible events that we're currently seeing in the Middle East can sometimes create an unwanted attraction for traders. Chasing short, sharp swings in things like oil and other commodities of this ilk, might appear attractive for the here and now upside opportunity but be aware geopolitical trading always ends in bad outcomes. This is why we...
October 2, 2024
Read More > US trading thematics Part 3: More than the Trump trade
We've held off making comments about the events of what happened last weekend. Everyone has seen it, everyone knows the horrible scenario that it was but it is probably also meant that we have missed really key economic and fundamental trading reasons U.S. markets are now in a very broad bull market scenario. Inflation It was only 10 weeks ag...
July 17, 2024
Read More > Three Key Things Markets Will Be Watching This Week
As major indices continue to look weak and test key technical levels, ongoing market sentiment is difficult to judge, with several crucial information points coming up over the next few days. #1 The Fed Rate Decision The Federal Reserve's narrative remains hawkish in terms of medium-term interest rates. Friday's PCE data did little to calm fe...
October 30, 2023
Read More > The Economics of Currency Pegs: Stability vs. Risk
A currency peg is a policy in which a country's government or central bank fixes the exchange rate of its currency to the value of another currency or a basket of currencies. The pegged rate is enforced by the country's central bank, which will exchange currency at that rate. Commonly, countries that participate in this practice prefer to peg th...
July 17, 2023
Read More > China in Covid 19 limbo creating headwind for the global economy?
In recent days and weeks there have been rumours that China is beginning to consider an easing of its Covid restrictions. As virtually the last country with extreme Covid restrictions, a shift in policy from China would be a major catalyst for the global markets and economy. Whilst the CCP has not yet announced any actual easing, there are hopes th...
November 9, 2022
Read More > US mid terms loom as a potential catalyst for equities.
The US midterm elections are coming up next week on 8 November and have the potential to have a big say on the direction and volatility of the US and global markets. All the 435 seats in the House of representatives will be decided upon. Currently, the makeup of the house includes 220 Democrats, 212 republicans and 3 vacant seats. The ...
November 4, 2022
Read More > Oil continues its sell-off as it drops after weaker Chinese and US economic figures
Oil has continued its tumble from its March 2022 high of $131 per barrel down to $82 a barrel. The drop has been in response to weak economic figures from China and the USA which has added to the recessionary anxiety gripping the market. Furthermore, as Iran edges closer to a nuclear deal, the removal of economic sanctions on the country may be ...
August 16, 2022
Read More > What is going on with Taiwan?
What is going on with Taiwan? Taiwan is back in the news after US speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi visited the country causing a fiery reaction from the mainland of China. Historical background In order to understand the causes of the China/Taiwan tension, some historical perspective is needed. The current te...
August 4, 2022
Read More > Wheat Trading Opportunities
Wheat Trading Opportunities Wheat is a well-known soft commodity that is vital for any kind of bread product. It also has important uses for the feedstock for cattle which is vital in economies with large agricultural sectors. The supply and demand for wheat can be volatile with changes occurring for a multitude of different reasons. The...
July 26, 2022
Read More > The CHF rallies after surprise 50-point interest rate hike
The Swiss National Bank, (SNB) has surprised the market and raised interest rates by 0.5% to combat inflation. The SNB was one of the last central banks holding firm in its dovish stance, however with growing inflation felt now was the time to intervene and raised rates from -0.75% interest to -0.25%. It was the first interest rate rise since 2007 ...
June 17, 2022
Read More > New Zealand see unexpected contraction after Quarter figures released
The New Zealand economy took a hit in the first quarter as Covid 19 ran rampant and interest rates rose as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased interest rates to combat inflation. The contraction was exaggerated as imports were reduced. Growth across the country was slowed. Production based output or the GDP fell by 0.2% which was below the...
June 16, 2022
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